I believe that we are on the verge of a much longer drought. I believe that if Republicans do not play their cards right, we will be out of power for multiple generations this time, if not forever. 96% of blacks, 54% of young white voters, and 67% of Hispanics voted for Obama in 2008. The story behind this coalition is powerful; minorities have convinced young white Americans to "quit being prejudiced" by agreeing with them that Republicans are evil.
This will make winning elections ever more difficult as time goes by and fewer and fewer voters are white or conservative. Even in the upcoming elections the math is slowly shifting away from conservatives: US Embassy review of voters
Conservatives have bucked the trend by proving to be consistently competent and correct. From Reagan to Gingrich to the first Bush term, conservatives did more than "win the argument" by effectively and successfully administering the government. Leftist arguments that conservative ideas were racist and harmful fell largely on deaf ears. Those kinds of arguments do not work well when the recipient has a decent job and their children are doing well in school.
But this new coalition needs to be confronted with the evidence for conservative ideas again. If we do not start to unravel it from around the edges all will be lost. We need a competent, intelligent conservative administration again to begin to undercut the argument of the new Democratic coalition and begin to bust it up. Unfortunately, Mitt Romney is not that man. He is not a conservative and cannot turn the economy around.
Much is made of Romney's recent gaffes, but they directly are not really what matters. What matters is that they reflect Romney's real beliefs. Those beliefs would make the Romney administration a disaster, and cement the new Democratic coalition and help seal conservatives out of national politics for a very long time. What Romney policies? These ones:
1. Romney does not understand taxes.
Obama declared during the State of the Union address that he wants to raise taxes to 30%, claiming it to be a matter of "fairness" (whatever that means). Fortunately, fairness will not create jobs or strengthen the economy. But competition will. The Republican argument must be that we need our tax rates to be competitive with the rest of the world. If we want to draw investment and jobs, we should start by matching the tax rates of out competitors. The Perry/Gingrich idea of a flat tax and lower top rate for EVERYONE is the right way to go, but Romney lacks the understanding/courage to cut taxes based on sound economic principles. Result? We remain economically weakened.
2. Romney doesn't understand trade and international money issues.
Romney's big idea here is to get America into a trade war with China through tariffs. This is certainly a failing policy. It would be easier and more workable to use my idea of requiring all Chinese imports to be paid at a rate of 3 dollars to every yuan, and threaten to remove them from most favored nation status. That would force the Chinese to the bargaining table, and allow us to settle many of our differences. Romney's idea would drive down exports, lower GPA, and increase unemployment. Result: a faltering economic policy that will be easy to criticize, and paves the way for leftists to set up a 1930's -style economic policy. Do I need to say that's a bad thing?
3. Romney doesn't understand limited government.
The worst part of Romneycare is the worst part of Obamacare: the disregard for the rights of citizens. The Tea Party is not just about balancing the budget, but about the excessive and oppressive scope of government. The ridiculous amount of deficit spending currently underway is a symptom of a political class that no longer believes the citizen is sovereign. Now, the political class is supporting the idea that government is sovereign over the citizen. Romney, clearly cut from this same cloth, will do little to reign in the scope of government, which is just as important as the size outright. The gun control bill he willingly signed is an open example of how little he respects the rights of citizens. Result: government will still be out of control after his four years in office, and ready for democrats to expand further.
So Romney really will be the last Republican, solidifying the new Democratic coalition against conservatives. They will not remember the party of Reagan and Gingrich, but the party of Bush second term, McCain, and Romney. The charges of incompetence will stick more every day, and any opportunity to prove to the new generation that conservative ideas work will be lost.
That's what is really at stake if we elect Romney.